September brought signs of improvement across bunker and shipping markets, with Middle East crude flows recovering, spot bunker demand strengthening and tanker markets reaching new highs. Yet the recovery remains fragile. Geopolitical disruption continues to influence vessel routing, fuel availability and freight markets, while performance across major bunkering hubs remains uneven.
At a glance
- Middle East crude flows recovered substantially, approaching 2025 averages by late September, although infrastructure disruption and continuing security risks underline the vulnerability of that recovery.
- Bunker demand strengthened, with seen spot activity rising month on month and remaining broadly in line with 2025 levels.
- Regional performance remains mixed, Singapore continued to strengthen, while Fujairah remained significantly below previous-year levels despite some improvement.
- Shipping markets gained momentum, particularly tankers and dry bulk, as stronger trade flows and continued disruption supported freight markets.
Middle East flows recover, but risks remain
September marked an important improvement in Middle East crude flows. Following disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, greater volumes moved through the Strait of Hormuz and via ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. By late September, regional crude exports had recovered to around 17 million barrels per day, close to the 2025 average of 18 million barrels per day cited in the report.
This represents a noticeable change from August in reported regional crude exports. However, visible Hormuz tanker transits remained depressed, as significant volumes continued to move with AIS systems switched off and were therefore not captured in visible tracking.
The distinction, however, is between recovering physical flows and continuing geopolitical risk. September demonstrated how quickly infrastructure disruption can affect crude routing, supply expectations and freight markets. Regional security risks also remained elevated.
Trend: recovering, but volatile. The key challenge remains logistical, particularly adapting supply chains and operations to changing crude grades.
Bunker demand rebounds
Bunker demand also improved during September. Seen spot volumes rose month on month and remained broadly in line with 2025 levels, while average spot stem sizes recorded their first significant monthly increase since the conflict began.
The improvement followed a disrupted August, when severe weather affected parts of the Asian market and European spot demand declined. September subsequently brought stronger activity across several markets, including Singapore, Northern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean.
The wider outlook remains measured, although it has improved. Recent industry forecasts indicate that conventional bunker demand is still expected to decline year on year in 2026, but by less than previously anticipated.
Longer voyage distances and displaced Middle East demand continue to provide support, particularly in Asia. At the same time, growing alternative-fuel adoption, currently concentrated mainly in Europe, remains a longer-term counterweight to conventional demand.
Trend: strengthening after August’s disruption. Confidence: medium.
A widening regional divide
Singapore strengthens
Singapore continues to show some of the clearest positive momentum among the major bunkering hubs covered by the reports. September reporting notes consecutive gains in official sales, supported by strong HSFO activity, while seen spot demand also increased. Fuel oil inventories declined during the month, maintaining a relatively tight supply backdrop.
Trend: strengthening demand with continued supply constraints.
Fujairah remains subdued
Fujairah remains the key contrast. Although port sales improved modestly in July and August, August volumes were still 65% below the previous year. The latest movement, partly supported by the return of a small number of market participants, should therefore be viewed as stabilisation from a weak base rather than evidence of a sustained recovery.
Trend: weak and stabilising.
Tankers lead stronger shipping markets
Tanker markets provide the clearest multi-month shipping trend. Earnings surged amid disruption in July, remained strong during August and reached new highs in September, supported by higher Middle East crude exports and persistent logistical disruption.
According to the September Clarksons report, average tanker earnings surpassed $200,000 per day in late September, with VLCCs leading the rally. The longer-term balance is less certain, with future demand heavily dependent on geopolitics, changing trade flows and fleet growth.
Dry bulk markets also strengthened. After remaining firm through July and August, earnings reached a four-year high in September, supported by robust trade volumes, longer average sailing distances and disruption.
Tankers: strengthening. Dry bulk: strengthening.
Container markets also firmed during September, but the outlook is more finely balanced. Returning Red Sea services have begun releasing some pressure from Asia-Europe routes, while significant fleet growth expected in 2027 could challenge the future market balance.
What to watch
Middle East flows Whether September’s recovery can hold amid continuing infrastructure and security risks.
Fujairah Whether tentative stabilisation develops into a more sustained recovery.
Singapore supply Whether declining fuel oil inventories persist alongside stronger demand.
Tanker markets Whether stronger crude flows and disruption continue to support elevated freight conditions.